Texas Tribune
Scientists: Texas weather extremes likely to become normal
by By Alejandra Martinez and Yuriko Schumacher, The Texas Tribune – 2024-07-01 05:00:00
SUMMARY: This year, Texas has faced extreme weather, including wildfires, storms, flooding, tornadoes, and Tropical Storm Alberto. Climate scientists attribute increasing severe weather to rising greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. This has led to more intense and erratic rainfall in the state, with wet areas getting wetter and dry areas experiencing amplified droughts. Experts like Avantika Gori and John Nielsen-Gammon emphasize the impact of warmer temperatures and altered precipitation patterns. Drought in West Texas has also severely affected Rio Grande reservoirs, compounded by delayed water deliveries from Mexico due to their own drought.
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Texas is no stranger to extreme weather, but it's been a year. Massive wildfires, intense thunderstorms, widespread flooding, tornadoes and a tropical storm have swept the state.
And the year's only halfway over.
In February and March, the largest wildfire in Texas history burned through more than 1 million acres, killing livestock, destroying crops and gutting infrastructure in the Panhandle northeast of Amarillo. In early May, back-to-back storms drenched Southeast Texas, swelling rivers and creeks and flooding nearby communities.
Later that month, tornadoes struck parts of North Texas and a powerful windstorm known as a derecho slammed the Houston region with 100-mile-per-hour winds, causing widespread blackouts and property damage. Most recently, Tropical Storm Alberto made landfall in northeast Mexico, dumping heavy rainfall on South Texas — but not enough to fill drought-starved reservoirs on the Rio Grande.
Climate scientists and academics say that as emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases continue to push temperatures higher, severe weather in the state is likely to worsen. They add that Texas will likely see a growing gap between wet parts of the state and dry parts as climate change alters precipitation patterns and warms oceans.
One area where the gap has grown is rainfall. This year, Huntsville recorded more than 9 inches of rainfall on May 2, three months worth of rain in just a day, while Wichita Falls, Dallas and Waco have already seen nearly double the amount of rain they normally get during the first half of the year.
“Rainfall is being concentrated in these really high-intensity storms,” said Avantika Gori, an assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering at Rice University in Houston.
Gori, whose research focuses on coastal and urban flooding and changes in flood risk due to climate change, said areas of Texas that are normally wet are getting wetter. “And then the areas that are historically dry, the lack of rainfall is also being amplified,” she said.
John Nielsen-Gammon, the state climatologist, said Texas has experienced a long-term increase in rainfall overall and it's becoming more intense and erratic. He said the extreme rainfall in North and East Texas this year has been unusual.
“It's bad luck that we had all the rain concentrated in half of the state,” Nielsen-Gammon said.
Feifei Pan, a hydrologist and professor at the University of North Texas at Denton, says there are two ingredients needed for precipitation: rising temperatures and moisture in the atmosphere.
Warmer temperatures due to climate change cause more water to evaporate from the land and oceans, leading to increasing flood risk in Texas.
Warmer air also can hold more water vapor, which can create heavier rain when it clashes with cold air to produce severe thunderstorms, Pan said.
Forecasters predict that La Niña, a climate pattern that causes surface ocean water temperatures to cool and tends to lessen wind speeds, will allow more tropical storms to develop this year in the Atlantic. Wind changes plus warmer-than-average ocean temperatures are expected to be major drivers to this year's predicted 17 to 25 named storms, including at least four major hurricanes.
The flip side of higher temperatures is that droughts can develop more quickly, Nielsen-Gammon, the state's climatologist, said.
Ongoing drought in West Texas has sent water levels in two major Rio Grande reservoirs, Amistad and Falcon, plummeting to near historic lows. Amistad is at 27% of capacity, down from its 68% average over the past 30 years. Falcon is at 14% of capacity this year, 24 percentage points lower over the same time frame.
Robert Mace, executive director and chief water policy officer of the Meadows Center for Water and the Environment at Texas State University in San Marcos, said a 1944 treaty between the U.S. and Mexico requires Mexico to deliver water to the U.S. from the six tributaries that feed into the Rio Grande. But those deliveries are behind, Mace said, because of Mexico's own drought.
Disclosure: Rice University and the University of North Texas have been financial supporters of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here.
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The Texas Tribune is a nonprofit, nonpartisan media organization that informs Texans — and engages with them — about public policy, politics, government and statewide issues.
Texas Tribune
UT-Austin offers probation to students arrested in protests
by By Asad Jung, The Texas Tribune – 2024-07-05 17:44:44
SUMMARY: The University of Texas at Austin is disciplining students arrested during pro-Palestinian protests in April by offering “deferred suspension,” allowing students to avoid suspension by proving educational growth. Deferred suspension requires students to take an exam on university rules and avoid appealing the decision. Some students, like Ari Lenahan, see this as a relief compared to harsher penalties faced by peers at other universities. Over 130 protesters were arrested, but Travis County Attorney Delia Garza declined to pursue criminal trespassing charges. The university's heavy-handed response has sparked criticism from students, faculty, and free speech advocates.
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The University of Texas at Austin has begun disciplining students who were arrested in pro-Palestinian demonstrations in April, scolding them for their actions but offering them a path to avoid suspension.
In letters sent out to students this week, first reported by KUT, university officials said it would be appropriate to suspend them for their actions during the protests but would give them the option to take “deferred suspension” instead, a form of probation that would allow students to remain in class and keep the disciplinary action from appearing on their final transcripts.
“Recognizing our commitment to educational growth, we want to offer you an alternative path to avoid suspension by proving that you have learned from this experience,” reads one of the letters obtained by The Texas Tribune.
Students who choose deferred suspension must agree to take an exam testing their knowledge of the university's rules and agree not to appeal the decision. The status would be active until July 7, 2025.
Those who decline that option would be suspended, the letter says. Students may also appeal the disciplinary sanctions through a university hearing.
Ari Lenahan, a UT-Austin student set to graduate in December, said he was relieved the university offered him deferred suspension since students at other universities across the country are facing harsher punishments after participating in pro-Palestinian demonstrations. He said it may be the best choice for him since he aims to graduate this year.
“It's a lot clearer where I stand now, at least in the university's eyes,” he said.
Lenahan still has a hold on his account preventing him from registering for classes in the fall but said the letter he received Wednesday states any holds will be removed once his case is resolved.
Anne-Marie Jardine, a recent graduate, received a sanction letter concerning her involvement in an April 24 pro-Palestinian demonstration. Jardine was told she would be under deferred suspension for one year if she were to re-enroll at UT-Austin. Jardine said she hasn't received her official diploma from the university yet.
Many other students under investigation have not yet been informed about how the university plans to move forward with their cases. Sam Law, a PhD candidate who was arrested on April 29, said that he expects the university will contact him soon.
More than 130 protesters were arrested at pro-Palestinian demonstrations on UT-Austin's campus in late April. In resolute efforts to dispel the protesters, law enforcement at the time deployed pepper spray and flash-bang explosives and charged students with horses. State troopers were deployed by Gov. Greg Abbott to help quash the protests and had a hand in the arrests.
Those arrested were charged with criminal trespassing but Travis County Attorney Delia Garza declined to pursue those charges.
In the aftermath of the protest, many students, faculty and free speech advocates questioned UT-Austin's heavy-handed response to the protests and criticized state GOP leaders' support of the arrests. Just a few years ago, Abbott had championed state legislation that protected free speech on college campuses, leading free speech advocates to ask who gets to enjoy free speech protections in Texas.
UT-Austin leaders, meanwhile, have vowed to carry out discipline against students who violated campus policies. Seniors in the class of 2024 were afraid their diplomas would be withheld, though they were permitted to join graduation ceremonies in the spring.
Sneha Dey contributed to this story.
Disclosure: University of Texas at Austin has been a financial supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here.
Just in: Former U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyoming; U.S. Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pennsylvania; and Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt will take the stage at The Texas Tribune Festival, Sept. 5–7 in downtown Austin. Buy tickets today!
The post UT-Austin offers probation to students arrested in protests appeared first on TexasTribune.org.
The Texas Tribune is a nonprofit, nonpartisan media organization that informs Texans — and engages with them — about public policy, politics, government and statewide issues.
Texas Tribune
Hurricane Beryl likely to hit Texas coast Monday
by By Emily Foxhall, Berenice Garcia and Stephen Simpson, The Texas Tribune – 2024-07-05 16:47:07
SUMMARY: Texans are being urged to prepare for Hurricane Beryl, expected to make landfall as a Category 1 or 2 storm along the Texas coast on Monday. Currently crossing Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Beryl could hit anywhere from northern Mexico to the mid-Texas coast. Officials stress vigilance and preparation, especially for those along the Gulf coast, and advise stocking up on essentials like food and water. Emergency measures include distributing sandbags and readying evacuation plans. Beryl, an unusually strong early-season storm, has already caused significant Caribbean damage, with forecasters predicting a highly active hurricane season exacerbated by climate change.
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Texans need to prepare for Hurricane Beryl, which is likely to make landfall on the state's coast as a Category 1 or 2 storm on Monday, state emergency officials said.
The record-setting storm was moving across Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Friday, leaving forecasters still unsure exactly where along the Texas coast will see the worst rainfall and wind.
As Beryl left behind a trail of destruction across Caribbean islands, state officials urged Texans along the entire Gulf coast to pay close attention and prepare for a dangerous storm, particularly people vacationing during the July 4 holiday weekend.
“Everyone along the coast should be paying attention to this storm,” Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said at a news conference in Austin. Patrick is serving as acting governor as Gov. Greg Abbott travels in Asia on an economic development trip.
Residents should be gassing up their vehicles and making sure they have food and water for themselves and their pets, Texas Division of Emergency Management Chief Nim Kidd said.
“A lot of people are out having fun right now, and that's a good thing, and we want them to continue to do that, but we also want them to prepare,” Kidd said. “We need a prepared community, not a panicked community.”
Boarded windows at the H-E-B Plus! grocery store in Brownsville on July 5, 2024.
Credit:
Michael Gonzalez for The Texas Tribune
Officials in the Rio Grande Valley and Corpus Christi have been distributing thousands of sandbags to help people prepare for potential flooding. South Texans have been eager for rain because the two major reservoirs on the Rio Grande have reached near or record lows in June.
Forecasters on Friday expected Beryl to make landfall anywhere from northern Mexico to the mid-Texas coast. The storm appeared likely aimed for South Texas but experts warned its path could shift north to Corpus Christi or Matagorda Bay.
Tropical storm-level winds would likely arrive Sunday night, according to the National Hurricane Center. Areas from Brownsville to Corpus Christi faced the greatest wind threat under the current forecast.
Heavy rain could begin Sunday and last through Tuesday. The National Hurricane Center predicted four to eight inches to fall along the South Texas coastline, with higher amounts in some spots, and up to six inches from Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. Forecasters expected the storm to slow over land, which would increase the risk of flooding.
Rip currents and high seas starting late Friday will make coastal conditions dangerous.
In the Rio Grande Valley, officials were preparing for possible flooding.
The eastern part of Hidalgo County tends to be hit the hardest during heavy rains, but the county was taking steps to mitigate flooding there, said Ricardo Saldaña, Hidalgo County's emergency management coordinator. Officials have placed water pumps near flood-prone areas and worked with contractors to prevent flooding at drainage project sites by covering up excavation holes.
Saldaña warned residents to make their own preparations by stocking up on food and water, preparing an emergency kit, and making arrangements with friends and family to relocate if necessary.
Sandbags at a county facility in Brownsville on July 5, 2024.
Credit:
Michael Gonzalez for The Texas Tribune
Cameron County Judge Eddie Treviño, Jr. recommended that people in recreational vehicles leave county parks.
“If you don't feel safe, evacuate,” said Tom Hushen, Cameron County's emergency management coordinator.
If there is flooding, Hushen said they were prepared to mobilize fire trucks and ambulances to help people evacuate. But high winds could pose another threat. Winds of more than 90 miles per hour could cause those vehicles to topple over. In that scenario, county officials would have to deploy larger vehicles like dump trucks.
Hushen said any power outages would prompt the opening of emergency shelters. He also advised residents to tie down any loose items in their yards and to bring in all patio furniture because high winds could turn those objects into projectiles.
“Listen to the warnings,” Hushen advised residents. “Things could change at a moment's notice.”
Beryl has astounded meteorologists with its strength so early in the summer. Warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures helped Beryl rapidly strengthen into a Category 4 storm in late June — becoming the first recorded Category 4 storm to form in June, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Beryl strengthened into a Category 5 and tore across the Caribbean, causing devastation in Grenada and Jamaica. It pushed onto the Yucatan Peninsula early Friday as a Category 2 storm.
“Beryl is so out of place historically given how early in the season it is and how strong it got,” said Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza, who helps write a blog on tropical weather called The Eyewall. “Typically you don't see that sort of thing until August — not the end of June, beginning of July.”
Federal forecasters expect this hurricane season, which began June 1, to be a bad one. They predicted to see 17 to 25 named storms form, which was more than they had ever forecast before a season's start. They believed four to seven of those would be Category 3 storms or stronger.
Climate change driven by people burning fossil fuels is causing oceans to warm and makes hurricanes more likely to be stronger. Scientists also say climate change may make rapid intensification of storms more likely — as happened with Beryl.
“To look at a satellite on June the 30th or July the 1st and to see a storm of Beryl's magnitude is almost unbelievable,” said Michael Lowry, a hurricane expert for WPLG TV in Miami.
Reporting in the Rio Grande Valley is supported in part by the Methodist Healthcare Ministries of South Texas, Inc.
Just in: Former U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyoming; U.S. Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pennsylvania; and Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt will take the stage at The Texas Tribune Festival, Sept. 5–7 in downtown Austin. Buy tickets today!
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The Texas Tribune is a nonprofit, nonpartisan media organization that informs Texans — and engages with them — about public policy, politics, government and statewide issues.
Texas Tribune
Michael McCaul seeks waiver to stay Foreign Affairs chair
by By Isaac Yu, The Texas Tribune – 2024-07-05 05:00:00
SUMMARY: U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul seeks a waiver to extend his chairmanship of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. During his term, McCaul, a Republican from Austin, led efforts to ban TikTok, supported Tibetan self-determination, and condemned the Chinese spy balloon. He also played a crucial role in passing a bipartisan Ukraine aid bill and has been active on global issues, including Ukraine and Taiwan. McCaul aims to maintain U.S. strength abroad amid growing isolationism in his party. Facing a six-year term limit, he needs special permission to continue, with several colleagues aiming for his position. His leadership's fate will be decided by the Republican Steering Committee.
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WASHINGTON — U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul isn't quite ready to give up his gavel.
In his two years as chair of the powerful House Foreign Affairs Committee, the Austin Republican has been busy; he spearheaded the charge to ban TikTok, authored one resolution on Tibetan self-determination and led another condemning the infamous Chinese spy balloon. Just last month, he helped shoulder a bipartisan Ukraine aid bill through Congress over many colleagues' loud objections. He's also traveled the globe, shaking hands with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Ukraine, receiving a blessing from the Dalai Lama in India, and gifting Taiwan President Lai Ching Te with a cowboy hat.
To keep his leadership post on one of the most coveted committees in Washington, he'll need special permission, having hit his six-year term limit. Several colleagues are already gunning to replace him.
McCaul confirmed last week that he would indeed seek a waiver to serve another term as top Republican on his committee, which would need approval from a steering committee and then the full House Republican caucus.
“It's not time to change horses right now,” McCaul said in an interview. “It's a dangerous time where the world is on fire.”
If his quest is successful, McCaul pledges to keep supporting key allies around the globe and stay aggressive on adversaries like Russia and China. If not, defense hawks in Washington could lose a powerful voice in charge just as the GOP prepares to redefine its approach to foreign policy under a potential second Trump administration.
Closing out his twentieth year in Congress, McCaul is well-connected and one of the most experienced members of the Texas delegation, having chaired the Homeland Security Committee from 2013 to 2019. The Foreign Affairs Committee under his leadership has been the most productive House committee this term, his office said, with 67 measures and 18 bills passed by the full chamber.
McCaul is making the case that his relationships on the Hill — including a friendship with Speaker Mike Johnson that helped push Ukraine aid over the finish line — justify him staying on an extra term.
Johnson had voted against sending aid to Ukraine before becoming speaker, part of a growing wing of conservatives who believed foreign aid came at the expense of funding for border security. McCaul, a steadfast supporter of Ukraine, helped sway Johnson's thinking and the speaker ultimately threw his support behind a package to send $60 billion in aid to boost Ukraine's arsenal against Russia.
The decision was opposed by a majority of Republicans and drew the ire of hardline conservatives, including Rep. Marjorie Taylor Green of Georgia, who filed a motion to vacate the speaker, which failed.
“I think I feel compelled to do it not for myself, but I don't think anyone would be able to do what I do or shepherd the [Ukraine] supplemental the way I was able to,” McCaul said.
McCaul has also been a leading China antagonist this term, leading an effort to force the sale of TikTok to an American company. His visits with Taiwanese leaders and the Dalai Lama, who China views as a separatist threat, have drawn strong condemnation and sanctions from Beijing.
His efforts on Ukraine, Taiwan and elsewhere are linked by a desire to project U.S. strength abroad, even as the isolationist wing of his party grows.
“If we abandoned Ukraine and allowed [Vladimir] Putin to take over Ukraine and threaten Eastern Europe, that would be a big mistake, and it would send a message to Chairman Xi [Jinping] that Taiwan's fair game,” McCaul said.
House Republicans set six-year term limits for committee chairs, including years spent as ranking member when the party is the minority. The GOP last voted to keep the term limits at the beginning of the current term.
Waivers are rare. Only one was granted last session, to Rep. Virginia Foxx, R-North Carolina, who stayed an extra term chairing the House Education and Workforce Committee. Before Foxx, the last waiver was granted in 2012, to former Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wisconsin.
McCaul's fight comes as Texan influence in the House is on the decline. The state delegation, which includes more Republicans than any other state, will see the retirements of Rep. Kay Granger, R-Fort Worth, who stepped down from her powerful perch as Appropriations chair, and Rep. Michael Burgess, R-Denton, who will give up the Rules Committee gavel less than a year after gaining it.
Rep. Jodey Arrington, R-Lubbock, will remain the top Republican on the Budget Committee. And Rep. Brian Babin, R-Woodville, is currently the only Republican running for the top spot on the Science, Space and Technology Committee.
Committee assignments are determined by the Republican Steering Committee, made up of party leadership and regional representatives, and then approved by the full conference. The 36-member Steering Committee, which always includes at least two Texans, has been stingy with waivers in the past, even when considering chairs like McCaul who have spent most of their time in the minority.
The decision could depend in part on how McCaul's committee feels about his leadership. Foxx had the support of every Republican on her committee in seeking a waiver, including from the next-highest ranking Republican who would have replaced her.
None of McCaul's 26 Republican colleagues on Foreign Affairs have made endorsements yet, but at least three members — Ann Wagner of Missouri, the committee's vice chair, Darrell Issa of California and Joe Wilson of South Carolina — have already confirmed they are running against McCaul for the top spot. The committee includes three fellow Texans: Reps. Nathaniel Moran of Tyler, Keith Self of McKinney and Ronny Jackson of Amarillo, none of whom responded to requests for comment.
It's not immediately clear whether any of McCaul's announced rivals would diverge greatly from his policy positions, and all three supported foreign aid packages for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan earlier this year.
Matthew Choi contributed to this report.
Just in: Former U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyoming; U.S. Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pennsylvania; and Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt will take the stage at The Texas Tribune Festival, Sept. 5–7 in downtown Austin. Buy tickets today!
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The Texas Tribune is a nonprofit, nonpartisan media organization that informs Texans — and engages with them — about public policy, politics, government and statewide issues.
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